Looking forward to the Spring Festival file 13 cinema managers： 1 billion in the first day, 4.5 billion in 6 days!

Say goodbye to the old Lingji, and welcome the new Swiss dog to report a bumper year. There are still 16 days to celebrate the Spring Festival in 2018, and the lively pre-sale has already opened the curtain of the Spring Festival movie market.

In mid-January, China Film Report WeChat WeChat official account sent a questionnaire for the Spring Festival to more than ten regional managers and managers of friendly cinemas. The questionnaire is divided into four items, and it is estimated that the box office of the Spring Festival in 2018 will be from the first day to the sixth day, the six-day box office on the first day of the New Year’s Day and the Valentine’s Day box office on February 14, as well as the top three movies that individuals want to see most.

On the last day of January, we published the results of the questionnaire. Let’s get to know the Lunar New Year movie market in the eyes of more than a dozen cinema managers.

From the first day to the sixth day, it is predicted that the lowest is 3 billion and the highest is 4.5 billion.

Question1: How much will the box office be during the six-day holiday from the first day (February 16th) to the sixth day (February 21st) of the 2018 Lunar New Year?

Let’s take a look at the box office results from the first three days to the sixth day: 3.13 billion in 2017, 3.05 billion in 2016 and 1.75 billion yuan in 2015.

Among the 13 movie theater managers who responded to our questionnaire, five movie theater managers predicted that the box office results for the first day to the sixth day of the Spring Festival in 2018 were between 3 billion and 3.5 billion yuan, and one of them was 3 billion yuan, which was lower than last year’s 3.13 billion yuan. It seems that there is insufficient confidence in the market.

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Cha Ning, the general manager of Bona International Cinema East China, who is estimated to be 3.5 billion yuan, believes that the increase will not be particularly large because the box office of the Spring Festival file is heavily tilted to the third, fourth and fifth tier cities, and the cinema volume and reception capacity of these cities are limited.

Hu Yong, the head of Hubei District of Happiness Blue Ocean International Studios, believes that it will exceed last year’s 3.1 billion yuan, and the growth is not obvious. Another reason is that third-party subsidies are not as strong as last year.

Five theater managers estimated that it was between 3.5 billion yuan and 4 billion yuan, and three managers estimated that it was between 4 billion yuan and 4.5 billion yuan.

Qiu Lei, the general manager of Shun Tak Studios Shanghai, conservatively estimated that the figure was more than 3.5 billion yuan, because he was confident in the quality of several films in this year’s Spring Festival, especially "Catch the Demon 2", which had a high reputation and a high box office as the previous film. As the second film, it is the welfare of fans to show two films in the Spring Festival at the same time.

Stills of "Detective Chinatown 2"

Liu Yunhui, the general manager of Guangzhou Zhongying Phoenix Studios, estimated that the number of screens increased by 600 million yuan compared with the same period of last year. Besides the increase in the number of screens and the high quality of the four major films, he also put forward two viewpoints: the audience’s viewing atmosphere and habits are better than that of the same period of last year, especially when the films bring more new viewing faces, and the Spring Festival family reunion will gradually form the entertainment way for the whole family to watch movies, bringing more topics before and after tea; The 2018 Spring Festival movies cover audiences of all ages, and "Catch the Demon 2" is a family fun, with strong IP and can drive the story of the girl country in the eyes of different ages, which is quite Wolf Warriors 2 temperament, showing the country’s prosperity and bringing its own aura.

Operation Red Sea stills

Lin Jinbin, the general manager of Dongguan East Wing International Studios, who gave a figure of 4 billion, predicted that there would be about 3 billion yuan in the next five days after the "one billion plus" on the first day.

Cao Gang, director of market operation of Shanghai United Cinema Line, who gave a forecast of more than 4.5 billion yuan, speculated that "there were 45,000 screens in the same period last year and more than 52,000 screens this year, and the box office is expected to increase by more than 30% year-on-year."

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13 cinema managers’ prediction of six-day box office from grade one to grade six

Will the "one billion plus" on New Year’s Day hit a new high at the box office in a single day?

Question2: How much will the box office be on the first day of the Spring Festival in 2018 (February 16th)?

In 2017, 2016 and 2015, the box office exceeded 800 million yuan, 650 million yuan and 330 million yuan respectively.

For the box office forecast of the New Year’s Day in 2018, three theater managers predicted that it would be below 1 billion yuan, five managers predicted that it would be around 1 billion yuan, and five managers predicted that it would be above 1 billion yuan.

Wang Zheng, the marketing manager of Jinyi Studios Beijing Chaoyang Joy City Store, which is estimated to be 700 million yuan, believes that the forecast is 100 million less than that of the same day last year because there are no films and 2D films on New Year’s Eve.

Pang Zheng, manager of Lumiere Studios’ Tantian Street Store, which is also on Chaoyang North Road in Beijing, is more optimistic about the first film market. "As far as the current pre-sale analysis is concerned, the number of times released by" Catch the Demon 2 "is full under the influence of ticket compensation. The overall box office should exceed 1 billion yuan. "

Cha Ning, general manager of Bona International Cinema in East China, also thinks that the first day will exceed 1 billion yuan. She added that the price limit of several blockbusters has increased this year.

Cao Gang, director of market operation of Shanghai United Cinema Line, said, "The pre-sale has exceeded 50 million three weeks in advance, and the daily box office is estimated to increase by 20% year-on-year."

13 cinema managers’ prediction of single-day box office on New Year’s Day

Can Valentine’s Day the day before New Year’s Eve reach 400 million box office?

Question3: What will be the box office for Valentine’s Day in 2018?

For the box office of Valentine’s Day in 2018, three theater managers predicted that the box office would be within 100 million yuan, three managers predicted that the box office would be between 200 million yuan and 300 million yuan, and seven managers predicted that the box office would be between 400 million yuan and 500 million yuan.

Liu Yunhui, general manager of Guangzhou Zhongying Phoenix Studios, who predicted the box office of 80 million yuan, believes that this year’s Valentine’s Day is the day before New Year’s Eve, and the audience is basically busy with the Spring Festival. At present, there is only one movie "Journey to the West" to watch.

Hu Yong, head of Happiness Blue Ocean International Studios in Hubei, also said that the box office output at this time is mainly in third-and fourth-tier cities, but people are preparing for the New Year, and their attention may decrease on Valentine’s Day.

Qiu Lei, general manager of Dexin Studios Shanghai, analyzed, "Last year’s Valentine’s Day box office was 390 million yuan, and this year it is estimated to be 500 million yuan. Because many enterprises will have an early holiday near the Chinese New Year, Journey to the West will definitely make a major contribution to the box office, because many studios and audiences want to see the quality of Journey to the West, and there are many blockbusters in the Spring Festival. It is also an adventure for Journey to the West to the Girl’s Country to do so. Many studios will increase Journey to the Girl’s Country with good screening effect.

13 cinema managers’ prediction of Valentine’s Day box office

The cinema manager personally wants to see: Catch the Demon 2, Chinatown Detective 2, Operation Red Sea.

Question4: What are the first three movies that people want to see in the following Spring Festival movies (1 Journey to the Daughter’s Country, 2 Detective Cases in Chinatown, 3 Catch the Demon, 4, 5, 6, 7 Operation Red Sea, 8, 9,10 and 11)?

According to the survey, the top three films are: Catch the Demon 2, Detective Chinatown 2, Operation Red Sea.

List of the top three movies that cinema managers want to see most.

Statistics of 12 managers’ voting

The theater regional managers and theater managers who helped China Film Report to complete the questionnaire on WeChat WeChat official account mainly came from Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, including a theater marketing manager and a theater manager representative in a fourth-tier city, which are collectively referred to as theater managers for the convenience of writing. Here, I would also like to thank many cinema managers for their participation and cooperation, and wish the major cinemas a new high in revenue during the Spring Festival.