Guangzhou has entered the high incidence of influenza in spring! You need to pay attention →

According to Guangzhou CDC

Recent monitoring data show that

For nearly a month,

The level of influenza activity, mainly influenza A, continues to rise.

The momentum is rapid.

Guangzhou has entered the high incidence of influenza in spring.

What are the symptoms of influenza?

How will it spread?

How to prevent and treat it scientifically?

How to tell whether it is the flu or the common cold?

……

One article will take you all to know.

What is the flu?

△ Xu Yi, Director of Internal Medicine Department and Director of Infectious Diseases Department of Guangzhou Women and Children Medical Center

Xu Yi, director of internal medicine department and director of infectious diseases department of Guangzhou Women and Children Medical Center, said that influenza, referred to as influenza, is an acute respiratory disease caused by influenza virus and belongs to Class C infectious disease. Influenza A (subtype A H1N1 and subtype A H3N2) and influenza B (strain Yamagata and strain Victoria) are the most prevalent seasonal viruses in the population. Influenza A virus is more likely to spread rapidly among people, and many large-scale outbreaks of influenza in history are related to influenza A virus. Recently, the rising level of influenza activity in many places in China is also caused by the subtype of influenza A (H1N1).

In the past three years, we have taken non-drug interventions, such as wearing masks and limiting social distance, which have effectively curbed the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. At the same time, it also reduces the exposure to influenza in the population, resulting in the decline of pre-existing immunity in the population, which has a certain risk of influenza epidemic. In the south, there may be a single annual influenza peak from April to June every year.

In the face of influenza virus, we have two sharp weapons to "defeat the enemy": special antiviral drugs and influenza vaccine. As long as you pay attention to personal precautions and maintain good hygiene habits, the possibility of a persistent influenza pandemic is already small, so you don’t have to be nervous and afraid.

How does the flu spread?

Influenza patients and recessive infections are the main sources of seasonal influenza infection. Influenza is mainly transmitted by air droplets, and it can also be transmitted by direct or indirect contact with mucous membranes such as mouth, nose and eyes. It can also spread in the form of aerosol in a crowded, closed or poorly ventilated room.

What are the main symptoms of influenza?

The onset of influenza is urgent, and most of them are self-limited. Mainly with fever, headache, myalgia and general malaise; The body temperature can reach 39~40℃, which is often accompanied by systemic symptoms such as muscle and joint pain, fatigue and loss of appetite. Often sore throat, dry cough, nasal congestion, runny nose, discomfort behind the sternum, facial flushing, conjunctival congestion and so on. Some patients have mild or no symptoms. Mild flu is often similar to the common cold, but flu fever and systemic symptoms are more obvious.

How to distinguish

H1N1 and the common cold?

The child has flu-related symptoms

What circumstances need to be sent to the doctor in time?

1. Persistent high fever > 3 days, accompanied by severe cough, expectoration of pus, blood sputum, or chest pain;

2. Breathing frequency is fast, breathing is difficult, and the lips are cyanotic;

3. Slow response, lethargy, restlessness, etc.;

4. Severe vomiting, diarrhea, dehydration such as less urine and less tears;

5. pneumonia;

6. When the original underlying disease is obviously aggravated.

It should be emphasized that younger children must see a doctor when they have persistent high fever or ultra-high fever in the first 1-2 days of illness, and the antipyretic drugs and physical cooling effects are not obvious, or when they have convulsions.

How to treat the flu?

Generally, children are advised to stay at home and keep the room ventilated after symptoms appear. Get enough rest, drink plenty of water, and the diet should be easy to digest and nutritious. Minimize contact with others and avoid infection. The focus of treatment is to relieve flu-like symptoms such as fever and cough, and the patient’s condition should be closely observed.

Children under 5 years old or obese are more likely to have serious complications, so antiviral treatment under the guidance of a doctor as soon as possible can alleviate flu symptoms, shorten the course of flu and reduce the mortality rate of severe flu.

Remember: antibiotics and hormones are ineffective against influenza virus. )

The flu is coming

How to prevent it scientifically?

1. Personal protection: During the flu season, try to avoid going to crowded places and contacting people with respiratory symptoms; If the child has respiratory symptoms, he should rest at home, conduct health observation, and enter the park and attend classes without illness; Maintain good hygiene habits such as hand hygiene and cough etiquette.

2. Maintain environmental sanitation: keep the residence clean and ventilated, and regularly clean and disinfect key parts such as door handles and handrails.

3. Strengthen the health monitoring of collective units: schools and kindergartens should strengthen morning and afternoon inspections and full-day observation; Children with flu-like symptoms should rest at home to reduce the spread of the disease.

4. Vaccination against influenza is the first line of defense against influenza, and children over 6 months old can have protective effect after vaccination according to recommended procedures. The peak time and duration of influenza activity vary from place to place every year. In order to ensure that the recipients can get immune protection before the flu season, it is recommended to vaccinate as soon as the vaccine is available.

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Original title: "Guangzhou has entered the high incidence of influenza in spring! You need to pay attention → "

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Foreign netizens hotly discussed that "Salad Tower" forced Pizza Hut to cancel salad self-service in China.

In the summer of 2009, Pizza Hut cancelled its salad self-service in China chain stores, but foreign media seemed to have just recovered. The British "Post Online" news website analyzed and reported on the 29th of this month why Pizza Hut’s buffet salad was withdrawn in China, and listed in detail the case that Chinese became a "salad engineer" when he arrived at Pizza Hut, and concluded that "Pizza Hut could not afford to play after meeting Chinese". For the whimsy of China diners, foreign netizens also have different views. Some netizens envy and hate, "My mother Mia, it looks so good, I will do the same!" Some netizens criticized, "I don’t think we should waste food. It is said that there are still some children in China who don’t have enough to eat … …”

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

The following is the full text of the report:

A few years ago, Pizza Hut closed the salad buffet in China, and the official statement was that it was part of the menu reform. But many people think that the real reason is that the Pizza Hut diners in China can always make the Big Mac salad tower, so the cunning China diners came up with this idea.

Because compared with the generous Pizza Hut in Europe and America, the Pizza Hut in China only allows diners to help themselves with salads at the salad counter at one time. Therefore, diners in China certainly won’t waste this opportunity, which is also the only one. They invented the "salad tower" and piled up all kinds of fruits and vegetables in order to get more salads at one time.

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

China Diners’ "Masterpieces"

As a result, this kind of "salad tower" has become a trend. Many people post their "salad tower" on the Internet to show off, so everyone wants to surpass others and build a higher Pizza Hut "salad tower". Those "salad engineers" also shared their experience of stacking on the Internet. For example, if you want to stack the "salad tower" very high, you must first put the crispy foods such as carrots and cucumbers on the base and lay a good foundation.

Because Pizza Hut is positioned as a high-end restaurant in Asia, not a cheap fast food restaurant, when Pizza Hut restaurant in China announced that it would no longer set up its own salad service in China, people took it for granted that the "salad tower" was the cause.

Of course, after learning the bad news, Chinese seems to be more keen on building a "salad tower" to make up for the regret of the accumulation of colorless lacquers.

Kotakure website commented that Pizza Hut still kept some salad self-service in China’s capital, but this kind of play has gone out.

Foreign netizens also have different views on the whimsy of China diners. The following are excerpts from foreign netizens’ comments:

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" — — Pure handmade

My mother Mia, it’s so awesome. It looks good. I’m going to do the same!

I think it’s better not to waste food. It is said that there are still some children in China who don’t have enough to eat … … Forget it. Forget it.

Well, it’s really incredible!

Aren’t they afraid that eating all these at once will hurt their stomachs?

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

Wonderful Pizza Hut "Salad Tower"

I’m not surprised at this at all. I have lived in China for three years, and sometimes when I have brunch in a five-star hotel on weekends, I am really shocked every time. Chinese always fills the plate with food, as if it were their last meal. Whether it’s salad, caviar or dessert, Chinese can eat all the food you can name, and he eats a lot.

I remember that when people went to Pizza Hut for dinner a few years ago, they had to pay extra for salad. At that time, I always put salad in a bowl, because I could take more. I think I didn’t know I was dwarfed until I went to the East. I still like the way diners in China do, and I have learned a lot from them. I often go to Pizza Hut after returning to China, and then pile up salads to make all kinds of "salad towers", and I enjoy the feeling that employees and other guests stare at me. I think I am awesome!

Chinese has never eaten western food. You see that China is full of Pizza Hut, McDonald’s and KFC, and supermarkets are full of Tesco and Wal-Mart. Have you ever seen China-branded restaurants or other chain stores in Britain and America?

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

God-like existence — — Pizza Hut Salad Tower

I think Chinese’s "salad tower" is the greed of a few people that has damaged the interests of many people.

This looks very unsightly. I’m curious when was the last time they ate, and why did they keep stuffing food into their mouths?

I think only people who like salad very much can take so much at a time, otherwise it will be so heavy that all the food below will be crushed, and I feel disgusting.

I have a very simple way. Salad service is charged by weight. Let’s see if they will still take so much!

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

Although it is short, it is full of Pizza Hut "salad tower"

I can’t figure it out. In all Pizza Huts in the United States, the food in the salad bar is full, and few people take it … … Except, of course, Pizza Hut near Los Angeles Airport.

Real men eat potatoes and meat, not salads!

Ok, this really shocked me, but the salad in Pizza Hut tastes ok, so why put so much!

Well, they really have time to do this. When it’s done, the pizza will get cold.

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

Foreign netizens hotly discuss Chinese Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" to force it to cancel salad self-service.

Teach you how to build Pizza Hut "Salad Tower" by hand.

Original post address: British Post Online, Longteng.com.

Design and implementation of hedging scheme for copper smelting enterprises

  It is necessary to grasp the node that opens every profit window and rationally arrange the positions that need to be hedged.


铜冶炼企业套保方案的设计与实施


  A profit structure and risk characteristics of smelting enterprises


  The profit of copper smelting enterprises can be deduced by the following formula: profit = selling copper price-copper concentrate cost-smelting and processing cost = selling copper price-(purchasing copper price-smelting and processing cost)-smelting and processing cost = (selling copper price-purchasing copper price)+(smelting and processing cost-smelting and processing cost), in which the difference between smelting and processing cost is the core profit of copper smelting enterprises, which depends on the smelting technology, equipment and production management level of enterprises. The fluctuation of selling copper price and purchasing copper price is the external market risk faced by enterprises. If it is not managed or poorly managed, it will greatly infringe on the processing profits of enterprises. Therefore, smelting enterprises and traders above designated size often hedge their prices and lock in profits through the futures market.


  China’s copper resources are scarce, and the dependence of smelting enterprises on the import of raw materials is as high as 70%, while the finished electrolytic copper is basically sold domestically. Therefore, it is necessary to synchronize hedging in the internal and external markets. The actual hedging plan needs to weigh the scale of production and sales of enterprises, the differences in pricing benchmarks, pricing methods and pricing timing at both ends of the purchase and sale, and at the same time, the fluctuations and changes of macroeconomics and exchange rates cannot be ignored.


  The pricing of overseas purchased ore is based on LME price in London, and the pricing of domestic electrolytic copper is based on SHFE price in Shanghai Futures Exchange. The price changes of LME and SHFE are not completely synchronized, and the price difference exists for a long time and fluctuates violently. The calculation formula is "the current price of No.1 electrolytic copper in Yangtze River -(LME copper-swap fee+Yangshan copper premium) ×(1+ VAT rate )× exchange rate-miscellaneous fees".


  Theoretically, only when the above-mentioned tax-free static spread is greater than zero, the profit can be locked when the LME market imports the spot price and simultaneously sells the hedging in SHFE.


  Because the time node where the above price difference is positive is limited, usually there are only 3-4 opportunities throughout the year, it is very important for smelting enterprises to pay close attention to market dynamics and seize the right time to lock in the right amount of raw materials.


  B hedging scale and structure


  Before confirming the scale and structure of hedging, it is necessary to analyze the quantity and structure of raw materials and finished products of smelting enterprises. Because of the same pricing basis, the domestic purchased and sold parts can be hedged naturally, and only the purchased raw materials and the domestic finished products can be hedged. If the copper output of a smelter is 500,000 tons/year, and the monthly price of raw materials and finished products is 41,700 tons, of which 60% of raw materials depend on imports, then the specific structure of hedging.


  Raw material part


  The average monthly import of copper concentrate is 25,000 tons, based on the spot average price of LME market in QP month or the spot price before entering QP month; Purchasing 16,700 tons of copper concentrate in China every month is based on the monthly average price of copper in SHFE that month.


  Finished product part


  The ratio of long orders to zero orders for electrolytic copper sales in the industry is 7∶3, that is, the monthly sales volume of long orders is 29,200 tons, based on the average price of SHFE in that month; Sporadic sales of 12,500 tons, based on the timely copper price of SHFE in the current month (that is, the spot price), and referring to the spot price of Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals.


  Natural hedging


  In order to reduce the occupation of hedging funds, based on the same pricing basis, 16,700 tons of copper concentrate purchased in China and 16,700 tons of electrolytic copper sold in long orders can be naturally hedged.


  Hedging scale and structure


  In the product part, 12,500 tons of electrolytic copper sold in long-term orders and 12,500 tons of electrolytic copper sold in retail orders are hedged in SHFE market; The corresponding monthly import of 25,000 tons of raw materials, buy hedging in LME market.


  Capital occupation


  If an average of 25,000 tons of raw materials are hedged every month, 5,000 lots of copper contracts need to be sold in SHFE. At the current price of 48,000 yuan/ton, calculated according to the margin ratio of 10%, it needs to occupy the trading margin of 120 million yuan; In order to reduce the risk and ensure the safety of positions, the continuous margin should be appropriately increased.


  C hedging strategy implementation of QP in different pricing periods


  The so-called pricing period is the validity period of pricing agreed by buyers and sellers in international trade. For example, the pricing period of copper concentrate is the second month after transportation, and the time of transportation month is subject to the ocean bill of lading. With the increasing concentration of the global copper concentrate market, the international mining monopoly oligarchs will not distribute the annual agreed trade volume to each month in a balanced way. Even QP quantity is only of theoretical significance, and uneven QP quantity is the normal state of international trade.


  Hedging strategy under QP uniformity


  At this time, the quantity of copper concentrate imported every month is 1/12 of the annual agreed quantity. The importing enterprises must seize every opportunity that the tax-free price difference is beneficial to import, and lock in the processing fee income through the operation of selling and buying at the same time in the domestic and foreign futures markets. Usually, there are three or four import hedging opportunities periodically every year, and the number of active months of SHFE copper contracts is also three to four months, which can basically meet the demand of imported enterprises for uniform hedging in domestic and foreign futures markets throughout the year, and the hedging operation is relatively simple.


  Hedging strategy under the condition of uneven QP


  Copper concentrate suppliers will take advantage of the strong market position and deliberately increase the QP in the traditional peak consumption season, so as to increase the copper price in LME market after entering this month, thus indirectly increasing the sales price of copper concentrate. At this time, it is only through the combination of positive cross-market and inter-period arbitrage that the imported enterprises can achieve the expected hedging effect.


  In January, May and June, 2019, there were hedging opportunities in which the tax-free spread was greater than zero. For example, on January 16th and 17th, the import profits were all around 400 yuan/ton, which was worth operating. If the refinery contract situation is that the amount of QP in February, March and April is small, totaling 34,000 tons, while the amount of QP in May is as high as 41,000 tons, then the total amount of QP in February, March and April should be bought into the LME3 March contract; Corresponding to China, SHFE2 contracts in February, March and April should sell 11,300 tons. If LME’s May date price (the third Wednesday of each month) and SHFE contract also have hedging opportunities, we can buy all or part of the May QP in LME market, and at the same time, we can choose to sell the same amount of goods on the contract with tax-free spread greater than zero in SHFE market, with the equivalent month or the active distant month as the top choice, and then adjust the monthly contract quantity evenly when the SHFE contract structure is suitable for short positions, thus solving the problem of "uneven import QP quantity". When the spot price is higher than the contract price of the month with the largest short position, the spot can be oversold and the contract of the month can be closed first, and the contract of the month can be suspended.


  It should be noted that the profit should be locked in advance by buying LME and throwing SHFE copper before QP month. Because after entering QP month, buying raw materials can only be priced according to the average settlement price of LME market spot month, it is difficult to grasp the timing of selling hedging positions in China at this time. Back to the above case, if the amount of QP in February exceeds the average, and the amount of QP in March, April and May is less, the extra amount of QP in February should be dealt with when there is an arbitrage opportunity without tax spread in January. In addition, we need to pay attention to the influence of the market structure of internal and external markets on the hedging effect.


  The fluctuation of exchange rate is of great significance to importing enterprises, and the fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar will greatly affect the profits of enterprises. Therefore, while locking the price comparison during the import profit window, we should lock the exchange rate at the same time to hedge the risk of RMB depreciation. Specific operation can choose to buy RMB/USD futures (CUS) of HKEx or RMB/USD futures (UC) of SGX, and the contract month corresponds to the domestic SHFE copper contract month.


  Let’s take the above example. For example, on January 16th, 34,000 tons of copper were bought at the LME market for $5,900/ton, with a total market value of $ 34,000× 59,000 = 2,006 million. The first-hand RMB futures of SGX were $100,000, so it was necessary to buy 2,006 lots of RMB futures, with a margin of about 2.5% and a capital of about $50 million.


  D factors affecting import profit and loss


  Judging from the formula of tax-free spread, it is easy to find that the profit and loss of imports depend on the following factors:


  First, the linkage and differentiation of the relative trend of the internal and external disk. For copper, due to the existence of a large number of cross-market hedging arbitrage positions, it is difficult for the two cities to get out of the differentiated market, and more is just the different ups and downs. Generally speaking, the trading time of Luntong copper is long, and the market leads Shanghai copper to move towards and ahead of Shanghai copper, and the fluctuation range often exceeds Shanghai copper. In this regard, we can intuitively observe with the ratio of the inner disk to the outer disk, and the increase in the ratio indicates that the increase in the inner disk is higher than that in the outer disk, and vice versa.


  For example, from the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2018, Luntong continued to rise in December, hitting a new high of $7,312.5/ton on the 28th. As shown in the figure below, the ratio of the main contract of the internal market to the closing price of LME3 at 3 pm in March shows a gradual downward trend in the first box, which means that Shanghai copper is gradually weakening relative to Luntong. During this period, the average import loss was around 600 yuan/ton. Subsequently, on January 23, 2018, Luntong fell by 2.49%, but the decline of Shanghai Copper did not follow. On the 22nd, the ratio of Shanghai Copper was 7.64, and on the 23rd, it rose sharply to 7.80, and the import profit on that day exceeded 1000 yuan/ton.


  The second is the impact of CNH exchange rate changes. Of course, the influence of Shanghai-Shanghai ratio on import profit is not absolute. From the opening in mid-June to mid-July, 2018, the import window was always closed. Judging from the basis difference between the internal and external disks at that time, they were all in a positive structure and were in a spot discount state. Yangshan copper premium remained at a high level of about $80/ton. However, from March 27th to August 15th of that year, the offshore RMB CNH depreciated from 6.2355 to 6.9583. As can be seen from the second box in the figure below, the exchange rate trend wears the Shanghai-Lun ratio, which means that the exchange rate decline far exceeds the increase of the Shanghai-Lun ratio. This factor alone can determine the state of import profit and loss, which shows the importance of exchange rate management.



图为SHFE主力与LME的3月合约收盘价



  The picture shows the closing price of the March contract between SHFE main force and LME.



图为LME库存与现货升贴水



  The picture shows LME inventory and spot discount.


  The third is the influence of the different basis structure of the inner and outer disks. On August 13-22 and August 31-September 11, 2018, two long-lasting profit windows were opened, and the highest import profit was almost equal to 1000 yuan/ton. At that time, LME went to stock by canceling warehouse receipts. On August 13th, the cancellation of warehouse receipts accounted for less than 10%, and LME’s cash-3s was greatly discounted at about $30/ton. With the opening of the import profit window, the profit-driven inventory moved to Asian warehouses. On August 31st, the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts rose rapidly to 53%, and LME’s cash-3s discount shrank to USD 7/ton. At the same time, CNH also cooperated with the withdrawal from a relatively high level and was in a state of slight appreciation. Domestic consumption entered the peak season, and the spot premium rose to about 200 yuan/ton. At this time, the internal and external disks echo each other, and the spot market is in a rare common heat.


  Fourthly, the influence of spot copper premium in Yangshan foreign trade market. With the development of the breadth and depth of the market, the financial attribute of copper gradually fades, and the commodity attribute is increasingly enhanced. The import quantity basically reflects the rigid demand of the real economy. When the import profit expands, traders are profitable, and the import clearance volume is greatly increased, and the Yangshan copper premium rises. Therefore, the spot copper premium in foreign trade market is a dependent variable determined by the above three factors, and its own change has been difficult to affect the import profit window.



图为洋山铜溢价与进口盈亏对比



  The picture shows the comparison between Yangshan copper premium and import profit and loss.


  E market outlook and enterprise countermeasures


  In 2019, the TCbenchmark was US$ 80.8/ton, while the spot TC of copper concentrate fell all the way to below US$ 60/ton, and the price of sulfuric acid continued to fall. Some small smelters with few long-term associations have fallen below the production cost. Although the output of electrolytic copper decreased by 50,000 tons in the first half of the year, it is estimated that the crude refining capacity will increase by 800,000 tons and the refining capacity will increase by 1 million tons during the year. At the same time, due to various unexpected disturbances, woodmackenzie has predicted the negative growth of copper concentrate output. As far as the industrial chain as a whole is concerned, it is obviously bad for smelting enterprises, so it is particularly important to maintain due profits.


  At present, the global economic growth is slowing down and the trade friction is constant. On April 17th, the copper price of Luntong continued to drop from a high of 6,608.5 USD/ton to 5,740 USD/ton on June 7th. At present, with the staged achievements of the Sino-US trade agreement, Luntong has once again returned to the 6,000 USD/ton mark. From the perspective of terminal consumption, domestic automobile consumption may be in a state of bottoming out, air conditioning production is no longer strong, and cable orders are not optimistic. Superimposing the international political and economic environment that may be repeated, it is difficult for copper prices to get out of the trend of unilateral rise. The current rise is more about repairing the low volatility for a long time before.


  During the observation period, the depreciation rate of the exchange rate was slightly larger than the price comparison between the internal and external markets. Due to the weakening of downstream consumption, Yangshan copper premium fell sharply, and the import profit window was opened from time to time, but it didn’t last long and the profit margin was limited. Therefore, for smelting enterprises, it is more important to grasp the nodes that the profit window opens every time and rationally arrange the positions that need to be preserved.

(Editor: Zhao Peng)

Looking forward to the Spring Festival file 13 cinema managers: 1 billion in the first day, 4.5 billion in 6 days!

Say goodbye to the old Lingji, and welcome the new Swiss dog to report a bumper year. There are still 16 days to celebrate the Spring Festival in 2018, and the lively pre-sale has already opened the curtain of the Spring Festival movie market.


In mid-January, China Film Report WeChat WeChat official account sent a questionnaire for the Spring Festival to more than ten regional managers and managers of friendly cinemas. The questionnaire is divided into four items, and it is estimated that the box office of the Spring Festival in 2018 will be from the first day to the sixth day, the six-day box office on the first day of the New Year’s Day and the Valentine’s Day box office on February 14, as well as the top three movies that individuals want to see most.


On the last day of January, we published the results of the questionnaire. Let’s get to know the Lunar New Year movie market in the eyes of more than a dozen cinema managers.


From the first day to the sixth day, it is predicted that the lowest is 3 billion and the highest is 4.5 billion.


Question1: How much will the box office be during the six-day holiday from the first day (February 16th) to the sixth day (February 21st) of the 2018 Lunar New Year?


Let’s take a look at the box office results from the first three days to the sixth day: 3.13 billion in 2017, 3.05 billion in 2016 and 1.75 billion yuan in 2015.


Among the 13 movie theater managers who responded to our questionnaire, five movie theater managers predicted that the box office results for the first day to the sixth day of the Spring Festival in 2018 were between 3 billion and 3.5 billion yuan, and one of them was 3 billion yuan, which was lower than last year’s 3.13 billion yuan. It seems that there is insufficient confidence in the market.

stage photo


Cha Ning, the general manager of Bona International Cinema East China, who is estimated to be 3.5 billion yuan, believes that the increase will not be particularly large because the box office of the Spring Festival file is heavily tilted to the third, fourth and fifth tier cities, and the cinema volume and reception capacity of these cities are limited.


Hu Yong, the head of Hubei District of Happiness Blue Ocean International Studios, believes that it will exceed last year’s 3.1 billion yuan, and the growth is not obvious. Another reason is that third-party subsidies are not as strong as last year.


Five theater managers estimated that it was between 3.5 billion yuan and 4 billion yuan, and three managers estimated that it was between 4 billion yuan and 4.5 billion yuan.


Qiu Lei, the general manager of Shun Tak Studios Shanghai, conservatively estimated that the figure was more than 3.5 billion yuan, because he was confident in the quality of several films in this year’s Spring Festival, especially "Catch the Demon 2", which had a high reputation and a high box office as the previous film. As the second film, it is the welfare of fans to show two films in the Spring Festival at the same time.

Stills of "Detective Chinatown 2"


Liu Yunhui, the general manager of Guangzhou Zhongying Phoenix Studios, estimated that the number of screens increased by 600 million yuan compared with the same period of last year. Besides the increase in the number of screens and the high quality of the four major films, he also put forward two viewpoints: the audience’s viewing atmosphere and habits are better than that of the same period of last year, especially when the films bring more new viewing faces, and the Spring Festival family reunion will gradually form the entertainment way for the whole family to watch movies, bringing more topics before and after tea; The 2018 Spring Festival movies cover audiences of all ages, and "Catch the Demon 2" is a family fun, with strong IP and can drive the story of the girl country in the eyes of different ages, which is quite Wolf Warriors 2 temperament, showing the country’s prosperity and bringing its own aura.


Operation Red Sea stills


Lin Jinbin, the general manager of Dongguan East Wing International Studios, who gave a figure of 4 billion, predicted that there would be about 3 billion yuan in the next five days after the "one billion plus" on the first day.


Cao Gang, director of market operation of Shanghai United Cinema Line, who gave a forecast of more than 4.5 billion yuan, speculated that "there were 45,000 screens in the same period last year and more than 52,000 screens this year, and the box office is expected to increase by more than 30% year-on-year."

Go. "

13 cinema managers’ prediction of six-day box office from grade one to grade six


Will the "one billion plus" on New Year’s Day hit a new high at the box office in a single day?


Question2: How much will the box office be on the first day of the Spring Festival in 2018 (February 16th)?


In 2017, 2016 and 2015, the box office exceeded 800 million yuan, 650 million yuan and 330 million yuan respectively.


For the box office forecast of the New Year’s Day in 2018, three theater managers predicted that it would be below 1 billion yuan, five managers predicted that it would be around 1 billion yuan, and five managers predicted that it would be above 1 billion yuan.


Wang Zheng, the marketing manager of Jinyi Studios Beijing Chaoyang Joy City Store, which is estimated to be 700 million yuan, believes that the forecast is 100 million less than that of the same day last year because there are no films and 2D films on New Year’s Eve.


Pang Zheng, manager of Lumiere Studios’ Tantian Street Store, which is also on Chaoyang North Road in Beijing, is more optimistic about the first film market. "As far as the current pre-sale analysis is concerned, the number of times released by" Catch the Demon 2 "is full under the influence of ticket compensation. The overall box office should exceed 1 billion yuan. "


Cha Ning, general manager of Bona International Cinema in East China, also thinks that the first day will exceed 1 billion yuan. She added that the price limit of several blockbusters has increased this year.


Cao Gang, director of market operation of Shanghai United Cinema Line, said, "The pre-sale has exceeded 50 million three weeks in advance, and the daily box office is estimated to increase by 20% year-on-year."

13 cinema managers’ prediction of single-day box office on New Year’s Day


Can Valentine’s Day the day before New Year’s Eve reach 400 million box office?


Question3: What will be the box office for Valentine’s Day in 2018?


For the box office of Valentine’s Day in 2018, three theater managers predicted that the box office would be within 100 million yuan, three managers predicted that the box office would be between 200 million yuan and 300 million yuan, and seven managers predicted that the box office would be between 400 million yuan and 500 million yuan.


Liu Yunhui, general manager of Guangzhou Zhongying Phoenix Studios, who predicted the box office of 80 million yuan, believes that this year’s Valentine’s Day is the day before New Year’s Eve, and the audience is basically busy with the Spring Festival. At present, there is only one movie "Journey to the West" to watch.

Hu Yong, head of Happiness Blue Ocean International Studios in Hubei, also said that the box office output at this time is mainly in third-and fourth-tier cities, but people are preparing for the New Year, and their attention may decrease on Valentine’s Day.


Qiu Lei, general manager of Dexin Studios Shanghai, analyzed, "Last year’s Valentine’s Day box office was 390 million yuan, and this year it is estimated to be 500 million yuan. Because many enterprises will have an early holiday near the Chinese New Year, Journey to the West will definitely make a major contribution to the box office, because many studios and audiences want to see the quality of Journey to the West, and there are many blockbusters in the Spring Festival. It is also an adventure for Journey to the West to the Girl’s Country to do so. Many studios will increase Journey to the Girl’s Country with good screening effect.

13 cinema managers’ prediction of Valentine’s Day box office


The cinema manager personally wants to see: Catch the Demon 2, Chinatown Detective 2, Operation Red Sea.


Question4: What are the first three movies that people want to see in the following Spring Festival movies (1 Journey to the Daughter’s Country, 2 Detective Cases in Chinatown, 3 Catch the Demon, 4, 5, 6, 7 Operation Red Sea, 8, 9,10 and 11)?


According to the survey, the top three films are: Catch the Demon 2, Detective Chinatown 2, Operation Red Sea.

List of the top three movies that cinema managers want to see most.


Statistics of 12 managers’ voting


The theater regional managers and theater managers who helped China Film Report to complete the questionnaire on WeChat WeChat official account mainly came from Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong, including a theater marketing manager and a theater manager representative in a fourth-tier city, which are collectively referred to as theater managers for the convenience of writing. Here, I would also like to thank many cinema managers for their participation and cooperation, and wish the major cinemas a new high in revenue during the Spring Festival.


Fulin village in Qijiang: the village is beautiful, the people are rich, the industry is prosperous, and the countryside is picturesque.

Workers in Fuliu Fruit and Vegetable Farm in Fulin Village are transplanting corn seedlings. Photo by Yan Ningbo

Workers in Fuliu Fruit and Vegetable Farm in Fulin Village are transplanting corn seedlings. Photo by Yan Ningbo

Fulin Village, Dongxi Town, Qijiang District, 5 kilometers away from Dongxichang Town, has 10 villagers’ groups under its jurisdiction, with a total of 3,245 people in 961 households. In recent years, Fulin Village, taking the construction of Hemei village as an opportunity, has made continuous efforts in promoting industrial revitalization, serving the construction of major projects, and promoting the improvement of human settlements for a long time.

Prosperous industry and increasing income of the masses

At present, it is spring ploughing and sowing. In Fuliu Fruit and Vegetable Farm in Fulin Village, we can see that in the well-regulated high-standard farmland, workers are helping seedlings, covering the soil and compacting … transplanting corn seedlings into the soil, and the fields are busy. Large tracts of newly transplanted corn seedlings are green and dripping, fluttering in the sun and showing infinite vitality.

"The farm mainly grows seasonal fruits and vegetables such as corn, jar beans, green beans, lettuce, spinach, cabbage and watermelon." Peng Zongqiang, the head of Fuliu Fruit and Vegetable Farm, worked outside for a few years and had some savings in his hand. In September 2022, he responded to the call of "returning to his hometown for development" and returned to Fulin Village to transfer 46.8 mu of land to start planting fruits and vegetables at the transfer price of 500 yuan/mu.

"At that time, these lands had been transformed into high-standard farmland, and tractor roads and irrigation canals were also repaired to farms." Peng Zongqiang said that the complete infrastructure has saved a lot of time and economic costs and greatly enhanced the confidence in development. With the strong support of Murakami, the farm was soon built and put into production.

In order to increase the output of fruits and vegetables and realize large-scale and standardized production, Peng Zongqiang’s fruit and vegetable farm cooperates with Chongqing Institute of Modern Agricultural Technology and Equipment. The research institute provides technical support for the farm in soil improvement, breeding and seedling raising, fertilizer application and pest control.

"Last year, when some vegetable markets were not very good, the gross income of the farm was more than 200,000 yuan." Peng Zongqiang said frankly.

After Peng Zongqiang’s fruit and vegetable farm settled in Fulin Village, it provided employment opportunities for more than 20 villagers around. Li Yixian, 60, is one of them. As a "long-term worker" in the fruit and vegetable farm, she is responsible for turning over the soil, raising seedlings, harvesting, etc. She walks through the fruit and vegetable farm every day, which is both busy and fulfilling. "I work here, I have something to do every day, and I have a fixed income of 1,600 yuan a month." Li Yixian said.

"Next, we will cooperate with the village to build greenhouses to further expand the scale, and at the same time build corridors to turn the farm into a modern farm integrating farming experience and leisure and sightseeing, so as to drive more villagers to get rich together." Peng Zongqiang said.

In Fulin Village, Peng Zongqiang is not a case. According to Zhao Fulong, the village’s first resident secretary, in recent years, the village has continuously improved its infrastructure, introduced owners and guided farmers, and vigorously developed more than 500 mu of fruit and vegetable industries such as pepper, radish, sorghum, rape, lotus root and watermelon according to local conditions. In 2023, it achieved sales income of more than 700,000 yuan, which effectively boosted villagers’ income, and at the same time, the village collectively earned more than 50,000 yuan. In addition, the village collective also established Chongqing Xiyu Construction Labor Service Co., Ltd. to undertake projects such as canals, fire pools and village-level highway maintenance, with an annual income of over 200,000 yuan.

Service projects promote development together.

In April, at the construction site of Fulin Reservoir Project in Fulin Village, excavators waved their long arms, engineering vehicles shuttled back and forth, and construction workers performed their duties … everywhere was a scene of intense construction.

"I come here every day to have a look, and I hope it will be repaired soon." Wu Yongwan, 60, lives nearby and visits the observation deck every day. In his words, "I haven’t seen it for decades. It’s beautiful."

As a key construction project at the municipal and district levels, the total estimated investment of Fulin Reservoir Construction Project is 749 million yuan, which is a medium-sized water conservancy project with the functions of agricultural irrigation and water supply for towns and towns, and comprehensive utilization of drinking water for rural people and livestock in irrigation areas. After the project is completed and put into use, it will meet the irrigation water demand of 16,000 rural residents, 69,200 town residents and 36,800 mu of farmland in 18 villages in Dongxi, Ganshui and Zhuantang.

In recent years, Fulin Village has focused on "good governance" and made great efforts to improve the effectiveness of rural governance in accordance with the working methods of "good organization, perfect mechanism, and good publicity by the masses" and "three goodness".

Good organization means giving full play to the exemplary role of the Party organization’s fighting fortress and the vanguard of party member, demonstrating and driving villagers to be the "protagonists" in rural construction, and actively participating in the construction and development of Fulin Village. Perfecting the mechanism means establishing and perfecting the "three ones", "three musts" working method and "three guarantees" gridding mechanism, so as to resolve various contradictions and disputes in the bud and achieve "everything has an explanation, everything has a landing, and everything has an echo". The masses promote kindness, that is, fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the masses to participate in self-government, set up a "Fulin Sunset Red" volunteer service team, carry out various volunteer services around the needs of villagers, and set up a village-level parliamentary hall to form a new pattern of rural governance that "everyone has something to discuss, talk about it together, and help together when it is difficult".

Renovating the environment and "refreshing" the village face

Fangfei in April, the spring is bright and warm. A winding country road runs from the head of Fulin village to the end of the village. Along the way, surrounded by clear water, birds singing and flowers fragrant, a patchwork of houses, a clean and bright small courtyard, and a unique wall painting … what a beautiful and peaceful picture of the countryside.

"Every household builds a garden, roads are swept and garbage is collected." Speaking of Fulin Village today, Zhao Fulong is like a few treasures. Since 2022, with the support of the Agricultural and Rural Committee of Qijiang District and the government of Dongxi Town, Fulin Village has invested 2 million yuan to upgrade the overall living environment of the village. After that, Fulin Village has changed its former appearance and its face value has improved significantly.

In order to continuously consolidate the improvement effect of human settlements and create a clean, tidy and orderly human settlements, Fulin Village regards the participation of human settlements and village-level public welfare undertakings as an important criterion for party member and the masses to evaluate the quality, and actively carries out the selection of "demonstration households of human settlements", "Hemei families", "civilized households" and "sanitary households" to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the masses and form a good situation in which everyone participates in the improvement and maintenance of human settlements.

"Now not only is the village clean, but the villagers’ consciousness has also improved." Pu Degui, a 58-year-old villager, bought a house in Chongqing and wanted him to go to the city to enjoy himself. Feeling the changes in the village in the past two years, Pu Degui said frankly: "I don’t want to go to town. If you have nothing to do, you can get flowers at home, wait for the grass, or go out and have a look, which is particularly comfortable. "

"In the next step, we will firmly seize the opportunity of the construction of Fulin Reservoir, incorporate the ladder homestay, the Four Seasons Fruit Garden and the trail around the lake into the development plan of our village, and combine the characteristics of Fulin to create an recognizable brand of Fulin agricultural tourism, promote rural revitalization, and make the villagers feel more, happier and more secure." Zhao Fulong said. (Qin Ningbo, Wang Yu, Gu E)

Influenza has entered a period of high incidence, so don’t fall into these eight misunderstandings in the prevention and treatment of influenza!

  CCTV News:Every winter and spring is a high incidence of influenza. Recently, the National Influenza Center released the influenza surveillance report for the second week of 2019. The report shows that the level of influenza activity in the northern and southern provinces of China continues to rise, and it has reached the peak level of influenza epidemic. The flu is fierce, but some misunderstandings about the flu may be more terrible than the flu itself!

  Myth 1: This year’s flu is more serious than in previous years.

  Feng Zijian, deputy director of China CDC, said that the overall epidemic intensity of influenza this year is not as strong as last year, but it may be slightly stronger in some local areas. According to past experience, influenza may reach its peak in a week or two, and then the activity intensity of influenza will fall back.

  % of influenza-like cases reported by sentinel hospitals in southern provinces in 2015-2019 Source: National Influenza Center.

  According to the report released by the National Influenza Center, in the second week of 2019, the ILI% reported by sentinel hospitals in southern provinces was 5.5%, which was higher than the same period in 2016 and 2017 (3.2% and 3.1%) and lower than the same period in 2018 (6.0%); The ILI% reported by sentinel hospitals in northern provinces was 5.3%, which was higher than that in 2016 and 2017 (3.2% and 3.6%) and lower than that in 2018 (5.5%).

  Song Tie, deputy director of the Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that there were more outbreaks of influenza in primary schools this year, but with the school holidays, this outbreak will gradually decrease.

  Myth 2: This year, the emergence of "EB flu" and other variants of influenza virus is even more harmful.

  Recently, a message about the so-called "EB flu" circulated in the circle of friends, saying that "EB virus caused a severe flu", and the news that "the flu virus turned to attack children’s brains this year" also made many people fidget. Is there a mutation in this year’s influenza virus, and is it more harmful than before? Experts said that at present, the variation of influenza virus has not been found in various places, and there is no EB flu in medicine.

  Weibo screenshot

  According to experts, although there is EB virus, there is no EB flu. Symptoms such as fever and sore throat caused by EB virus have nothing to do with influenza, and EB virus itself is not highly pathogenic and contagious, so it generally does not need special treatment.

  Myth 3: Influenza is treated as a common cold.

  The symptoms of the common cold are mild, and most of them are respiratory symptoms such as sore throat, cough and stuffy nose. Generally, they will get better after seven to ten days. If there are complications, they are usually sinusitis and otitis media, and the consequences are not serious; The flu will be accompanied by high fever above 38℃, chills, dizziness, headache, muscle aches, etc., and it will also be complicated with severe pneumonia and myocarditis, which is sometimes fatal and highly contagious. Hundreds of thousands of people worldwide die of the flu every year. Experts suggest that once you have cold symptoms, you should go to the hospital in time to check and diagnose whether it is the flu or not, and prescribe the right medicine.

  Myth 4: taking drugs "just a few days"

  Experts pointed out that the antiviral drug oseltamivir can alleviate flu symptoms and reduce complications. However, oseltamivir has its timing: use it within 48 hours after suffering from influenza, and the earlier the effect, the better. If it exceeds the time limit, the effect will be ignored.

  Other cold medicines are only "symptomatic medicines" to relieve symptoms, and any cold symptoms can only be eliminated through the resistance of patients’ own immunity.

  Zheng Rongxiu, the chief physician of the General Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, pointed out that there are many anti-cold drugs now, which just make the symptoms of cold less and make people feel better, but have no effect on the course of the disease itself. After the course of the disease, most patients can recover with our immunity.

  Myth # 5: When you have the flu, the infusion will get better quickly.

  According to experts, glucose, saline, antibiotics or traditional Chinese medicine injections are generally infused, and none of them are necessary for treating influenza. Glucose and salt can be ingested from the diet, so as long as they can eat, there is no need to directly enter the vein. Influenza is caused by virus, and antibiotics are used to kill bacteria, which has no effect on virus infection and can’t prevent secondary bacterial infection. If you have a bacterial infection, you need to use antibiotics or take them orally. There is no need for infusion. As for traditional Chinese medicine injections, at present, the side effects are unknown and the infusion risk is high.

  No matter from the perspective of saving medical costs or safety, we should follow the principle that drugs can be taken orally without injection, and drugs can be injected without infusion.

  Myth # 6: Mixed use of multiple drugs is effective.

  Experts emphasize that taking a variety of cold medicines will not play much role in the curative effect, on the contrary, the risk of adverse reactions will be doubled.

  Xie Lixin, director of the Department of Respiratory Medicine, the First Medical Center of the PLA General Hospital, said that it is a three-point poison. In clinical work, the related side effects caused by drug abuse or excessive overdose are not uncommon, and the lessons are very profound.

  Myth 7: relying on "remedies" such as vinegar fumigation to prevent influenza

 

  In order to prevent the flu, some people smoke vinegar at home. Experts say that acetic acid can only kill bacteria when it reaches a certain concentration. Moreover, the flu virus is not a bacterium, and it cannot be killed by acetic acid at all. Blind vinegar fumigation will also aggravate the condition of patients with bronchitis and emphysema.

  Others rely on oral vitamin C to prevent influenza. Experts say that taking enough fruits and vegetables has the same effect as oral vitamin C, which can improve immunity, but it has no antiviral effect. According to the method of drinking Radix Isatidis and other traditional Chinese medicines to prevent influenza, experts said that Radix Isatidis is cool and not beneficial to all patients.

  Yang Shuyu, president of Xiamen Medical Association, Fujian Province, pointed out that it is very important to pay attention to improving one’s immunity when a cold is prevalent, and blindly taking drugs will affect and damage one’s immunity.

  Myth # 8: Strong people don’t have to be afraid of the flu.

  Experts say that people who are strong and have strong resistance should not think that their chances of getting the flu are low, so they don’t pay attention to rest and prevention, so that the virus also has the opportunity to take advantage of it, such as fatigue, hunger, or soaking clothes after sweating a lot. Among influenza complications, the incidence of myocarditis is higher in healthy young adults. This is because these people are more immune, and when they are invaded by the virus, their own defense system will also damage myocardial cells while removing the virus. 

  The prevention methods of influenza in active period have long been known.

  Do a good job in preventing influenza:

  1, keep indoor air circulation, pay attention to the clean environment;

  2. Maintain adequate sleep, healthy diet and moderate exercise;

  3. Pay attention to the weather change, add or subtract clothes with the temperature change to avoid catching cold;

  4. Pay attention to personal hygiene, change clothes and wash hands frequently, and cover your mouth and nose with paper towels or sleeves when sneezing or coughing.

  Children and the elderly should pay special attention to:

  1. Put an end to letting children attend classes with illness, try to avoid contact with patients with influenza-like cases, and wear masks if necessary;

  2. It is suggested that the elderly and residents with basic diseases should be vaccinated as soon as possible before the peak of influenza;

  3, the school nursery institutions should do a good job of absence monitoring due to illness and morning and afternoon inspection.

 

  Source: Weibo, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Golden Globe Award Prediction: Boyhood has the highest chance of winning in 12 years.

    Special feature of 1905 film network Judging from the whole nomination situation, the Golden Globe Awards still follow the old way of "summarizer" in the award season. Still those familiar faces, or those familiar films, or a large and comprehensive nomination list. According to the trend of films in the award season, the number of awards won and the word-of-mouth of film critics, on the whole, and followed closely, while, and these three biographies are too safe and mainstream, and basically lose the chance to win the first prize. The alternative inspirational films, which have been popular since last year, are a little weak. Although the director Damien Chazelle became famous, he probably can’t do much.

 

    There are 30 nominations for the performance category of the Golden Globe Awards, which is somewhat "chaotic". However, there are only a few popular actors who have the chance to win the prize. The situation of actor melee is more complicated. Everyone has the opportunity and strength. Among the actresses, Julianne Moore was shortlisted for two best actress awards with Starway, which is the candidate with the highest chance.

 

Best drama: 4/5 is the biography "Youth" still has the highest chance of winning.

 

    Of the five films nominated for best drama, four are biographies. Selma tells a story about Martin Luther King, while The Imitation Game focuses on the legendary Turing. The protagonist of The Theory of Everything is Hawking. It is worth mentioning that after watching this movie, Hawking made it clear that he likes this movie very much, and although it was spit out by the prototype of the characters, as a movie, it is complete and full of emotions. Although it has a certain style tendency, it is somewhat far from ordinary fans, but it takes a lot of advantage in the award selection.

 

    Among the five films, the only fictional film — — "Youth" is the most like a documentary. In pursuit of authenticity, film director richard linklater spent 12 years shooting this film. Waiting for the actor to grow up abruptly, filming the growth and change of an American youth from 6 to 18 years old. You can say that this is the director’s paranoia and his willfulness — — Of course, on the artistic level, this is the embodiment of a director’s ethics and execution.

 

    According to the mainstream media in North America, "Youth" is unparalleled, not only because of the 12-year shooting time, but also because of the calm and indifferent texture conveyed in the film. In contrast, The Imitation Game is somewhat commercialized, while The Theory of Everything is like a love fairy tale, without the heavy feeling of winning the prize. Although The Fox Catcher is powerful, its restrained lens language and criticism of wealth still make the film not within the scope of mainstream values. Moreover, in recent days, the film has been "hated" by the protagonist prototype on social networking sites for seven times in a row, which is at the forefront of public opinion. Selma’s large-scale release time is very short, and its influence is limited. Moreover, it has already talked about racial issues last year, and the film theme is not dominant. Therefore, in terms of the best drama, "Youth" has the greatest chance of winning.

 

Best Music/Comedy: Birdman or Beating The Grand Budapest Hotel.

 

    A small mix of geek comedies, gay movies and fairy tales is the second-tier film among the five nominated films in this award. First of all, the word-of-mouth of "Magic Black Forest" is quite general, and some media even think that the whole film is nothing except Meryl Streep’s performance. The remaining two films, although of acceptable standard, are indeed dispensable films in the award season. Apart from the Golden Globe Award, which lists comedy/music films separately, these two films are hard to find in the awards season. The remaining two films, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, are popular films in the award season. Moreover, the unique and unforgettable Birdman is very promising in the Oscar selection.

 

    The Grand Budapest Hotel has a strong wes anderson style and is a unique work of this unique director. However, Anderson’s performance at the Golden Globe Award is very ordinary. This is his first nomination for the Golden Globe Award, and the chances of winning the award are not great, because those who were nominated for the Oscar before, and, all lost their trophies at the Golden Globe Award. Therefore, this "same recipe, same taste" film is hard to win at the Golden Globe Awards. Therefore, Bird Man, which is technically impeccable and has a strong "fantasy" plot, has become the film with the highest winning rate. Moreover, in this film, alejandro gonzalez inarritu also teased Hollywood by accident, showing his views on Hollywood as a Mexican "outsider". His view may win the favor of the Golden Globe Award hosted by hollywood foreign press association.


Best director: Richard Linkte’s 12-year sword-sharpening award is in sight.

 

    There are only five nominated best director awards, which are the most variable and the most competitive. Linklater, the director of "Youth", used time, patience, emotion and execution to make a fictional film show the reality of documentary. The film thus gained an incredible texture. Although the three-hour-long film is a little dull and boring, it is as memorable as the taste of life. Especially the mother in the film, she said that after sending her two children away, she was waiting for her funeral, which was quite touching.

 

    Birdman is full of whimsy. Although the clues of the story are old-fashioned, Inarito took the story to another level with his own means and skills of "turning ordinary into extraordinary". Although female directors ava duvernay, who filmed Selma, is 42 years old, she can be said to be a new director. Her outbreak this year has something to do with her accumulation in the circle for nearly ten years. Moreover, the black perspective and the film mixed with black street elements are refreshing.

 

     As for wes anderson and david fincher, they just contributed the films engraved with their style as always, without any breakthrough or innovation. This kind of directing work, at best, is called personal style; At worst, it is called standing still and standing still. Therefore, these two are not very competitive in the best director award. On the whole, richard linklater’s epic shooting process and extraordinary creativity are likely to win him the honor of best director.

next page Performance awards: michael keaton and Julianne Moore have obvious advantages.

From the data, we can see that there are many measures to ensure the safe and stable supply of energy and electricity during the peak summer.

CCTV News:Yesterday (July 26th) afternoon, the State Council Press Office held a routine briefing on the State Council policy. It was introduced at the meeting that during the peak summer this year, China’s electricity, coal, natural gas and other supplies were fully prepared, ensuring the safe and stable supply of energy and electricity during the peak summer.

In terms of electricity, since the beginning of summer, the national daily dispatching power generation has reached a record high of 30.171 billion kWh, which is 1.511 billion kWh higher than last year’s peak. The highest electricity load in China has reached two record highs, reaching 1.339 billion kilowatts, 49.5 million kilowatts higher than last year’s peak. Under the complicated situation of rapid growth of demand and substantial reduction of hydropower generation, comprehensive measures have been taken to ensure the safe and stable supply of electricity throughout the country.

In terms of coal, since the beginning of this year, coal production has increased steadily, imports have increased rapidly, and coal supply and demand are generally balanced. Up to now, 198 million tons of coal has been stored in power plants nationwide, an increase of more than 23 million tons compared with the same period of last year, which can be used for nearly 26 days.

In terms of natural gas, production and import have maintained steady growth, effectively ensuring people’s livelihood and industrial and commercial gas needs.

       Ou Hong, Deputy Secretary General of the National Development and Reform Commission:According to dispatching statistics, the apparent consumption of natural gas in the first half of the year was 194.9 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Since the summer, the maximum power generation gas consumption per day has exceeded 250 million cubic meters, which has strongly supported the peak output of gas and electricity.

National Development and Reform Commission: Make use of hydropower resources to ensure power supply.

At yesterday’s briefing, the National Development and Reform Commission also introduced that by the end of June this year, China’s installed hydropower capacity had reached 420 million kilowatts, accounting for 15.4% of the total installed power. Various measures such as increasing water storage in advance have been taken to ensure hydropower generation.

Since July, the six cascade hydropower stations, such as Wudongde and Baihetan, on the main stream of the Yangtze River, have made sufficient water storage arrangements before, leaving enough peak power generation capacity. Therefore, on July 11th and 12th, the power generation output reached record highs, with the highest exceeding 32 million kilowatts, which played a key role in ensuring peak power supply.

The second is to strengthen multi-energy complementarity and improve the output level of thermal power and new energy. On the one hand, urge thermal power to be fully developed to ensure that the peak capacity of thermal power can be fully exerted; On the other hand, the construction of new energy sources has been increased. In the first half of this year, wind power generation and solar power generation increased by 16% and 7.4% respectively, forming an important supplement to power generation capacity.

In addition, give full play to the advantages of large power grids and help each other.

       Guan Peng, head of the Economic Operation Regulation Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission:Faced with the shortage of hydropower output in southwest China, we have fully considered the supply and demand reality of sending and receiving provinces on the basis of stabilizing the power transmission scale all the year round, rationally optimized the relevant hydropower transmission arrangements, and at the same time, fully mobilized the resources of large power grids to increase the power transmission in northwest China, which has effectively supported the water storage and supply guarantee in southwest China.

National Energy Administration: By the end of June, the power transmission from West to East had exceeded 300 million kilowatts.

At the briefing held yesterday, the relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration introduced that by the end of June, the transmission capacity of China’s "West-to-East Power Transmission" had exceeded 300 million kilowatts, which strongly supported the power supply guarantee work.

According to the relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration, in order to ensure the supply of energy and electricity and optimize the layout of power supply in advance, by the end of June this year, the cumulative installed capacity of power generation in China was about 2.71 billion kilowatts, up 10.8% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the installed capacity of various power sources put into operation and connected to the grid was about 140 million kilowatts, of which the supporting power supply was about 30 million kilowatts. At the same time, increase the planning and construction of transmission channels.

Liu Mingyang, Head of Electric Power Department of National Energy Administration:Since the beginning of this year, Baihetan — Zhejiang DC Project and Northern Shaanxi — Hubei DC supporting power supply project and other projects have been put into production one after another. By the end of June, the transmission capacity of China’s "West-to-East Power Transmission" has exceeded 300 million kilowatts, of which the maximum transmission capacity of inter-provincial and inter-regional DC channels during the summer can reach 180 million kilowatts, an increase of about 17.5 million kilowatts compared with the same period last year.

       At the same time, China has scientifically played the role of transmission channel. Since the beginning of summer, the scale of inter-provincial and inter-regional DC power transmission has reached a maximum of about 160 million kilowatts. Except that the incoming water of hydropower in southwest China is relatively dry and the power transmission capacity is optimized and reduced, the power transmission channels in North China, Northwest China, Northeast China and Yunnan-Guizhou basically send power according to the maximum transmission capacity, which effectively guarantees the power supply in heavy load periods such as East China, Central China and Guangdong.

Find someone urgently! The trajectory involves Xi ‘an Railway Station, restaurants, building materials market, and the latest bulletin of Shaanxi Provincial Health and Health Commission!

From 0: 00 to 24: 00 on May 8, there were no newly reported local confirmed cases, suspected cases and asymptomatic infected persons.

From 0: 00 to 24: 00 on May 8, there were no new reports of imported confirmed cases, suspected cases and asymptomatic infected persons.

Yan’ an Baota district coping with epidemic prevention and control work headquarters

About announcing the addition of a close contact

Announcement of main activity tracks

On May 6th, according to the information feedback from the regional investigation platform of Shaanxi Province, one person in Baota District of Yan ‘an City was a passenger in the same carriage as the first screening positive person in COVID-19, Henan Province, and was judged as a close contact of the first screening positive person in COVID-19. At present, centralized isolation medical observation has been implemented in Baota District. Now the main activity track of this close contact in Baota District is notified as follows:

According to epidemiological investigation, the main activity tracks of close contacts are as follows:

May 5: From 10: 23 to 14: 02, Xi ‘an Railway Station arrives at Yan ‘an Railway Station by K5446 train (No.21 middle berth in 3 carriages); From 14: 30 to 15: 00, eat at the haggis restaurant next to the railway station; At 15:20, check into Yilai Hotel opposite the railway station; 20:20-20:51 Dinner at Hujia Laoda Meat Sandwich Shop near Yilai Hotel.

May 6th: Dine in the restaurant on the second floor of Yilai Hotel at 8:30; 9:48-12:30 Yinjiagou Real House activity; 12:45-13:05 Dining with spicy liver on the opposite side of Ouyada Building Materials Market in Yinjiagou Triumph City; 13:10-15:00 Yinjiagou Arc de Triomphe Ouyada Building Materials Market Activity; 15:12-15:50 Moon Star Home Market Activities on 100m Avenue; 16:11-16:53 Daming Palace Building Materials Market (Xincheng Store) activity; At 17:25, he returned to Yilai Hotel, and then he was placed in centralized isolation for medical observation.

Please take the initiative to report to the unit, the residential community (village) or the disease control department in a timely manner, and implement the 7-day health monitoring and 3 times (the first, fourth and seventh days) nucleic acid detection measures. At the same time, the general public are requested to pay attention to the information released by the relevant authorities at any time, not to believe in rumors, not to spread rumors, to further raise their awareness of personal protection, to wash their hands frequently, to wear masks, and to maintain a safe social distance. Those who conceal, falsely report or fail to cooperate with the control and control, resulting in the spread of the epidemic, will be investigated for legal responsibility according to law.

Xi’ an CDC issued a reminder

At present, there are many local epidemics in COVID-19, and the situation of prevention and control is still severe and complicated. Hou Tiejun, an expert on immunization planning at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Xi ‘an, reminded that with the popularity of Omicron mutant, there will be more and more asymptomatic infected people because of its characteristics of faster spread and stronger concealment, and the improvement of vaccination coverage. If asymptomatic infected people return home, it is bound to bring infection risk to the elderly at home.

At present, the national vaccination strategy is based on high-risk groups and key groups, and finally gradually transition to the elderly over 60 years old. "Vaccination with Covid-19 vaccine is still an effective means of protection at this stage, especially to accelerate the Covid-19 vaccination rate for the elderly, especially the very old. Only by improving the vaccination rate of the elderly can we truly win the initiative and win time for the prevention and control of the epidemic. " Hou Tiejun said.

Vaccination can effectively reduce the elderly.

Morbidity and mortality in COVID-19

According to the epidemic situation in other regions and provinces in China, the mortality rate and hospitalization rate of the elderly are very different whether they are vaccinated or not, especially the mortality rate can be more than ten times. If the elderly are not vaccinated or vaccinated with booster shots, such a population will lead to an increase in the overall incidence. Therefore, experts suggest that if the elderly have no absolute contraindications to vaccines, they should take the initiative to vaccinate COVID-19 vaccine as soon as possible.

In modern society, transportation is more convenient and people flow more frequently. No place is isolated from viruses. Hou Tiejun said, "At present, the mutated virus imported in some areas is highly contagious, and some cases have atypical clinical manifestations or even asymptomatic infected people. Even if the elderly do not go out at home or live in remote rural areas, they may still be infected with the virus. Especially if other people in the family work and study outside and have more opportunities to contact with others, it is possible to bring the virus home and cause infection in the elderly. " Therefore, in order to avoid threatening the lives of the elderly and causing a burden to the family and society, the elderly should also "take over everything" as soon as possible, which is to protect themselves and others.

It is also very necessary for the elderly to get booster shots. According to the research results on the safety, immunogenicity, effectiveness and immune persistence of the vaccine, at present, one dose of booster immunization is recommended for people over 18 years old who have completed basic immunization with inactivated vaccine and adenovirus vector vaccine in China, and it has been implemented nationwide. Because the immune function of the elderly is relatively weak, the antibody level and protective effect produced by people over 60 years old after completing the basic vaccine immunization are relatively lower than those of people aged 18 to 59, and once infected, the proportion of severe and critical diseases is also high. Therefore, it is suggested that the elderly should not only complete the whole process of basic immunization as soon as possible, but also strengthen immunization six months after the completion of basic immunization in order to obtain better protection effect. Studies have shown that the risk of serious illness and death caused by Covid-19 infection can be reduced by more than 90% after the elderly are vaccinated with booster immunization.

"Homologous" and "Sequential" Strengthening Methods

Can effectively prevent viruses.

So should the elderly choose homologous immunization or sequential immunization? In this regard, Hou Tiejun said that homologous booster vaccination means that the vaccine with the same technical route used in the original basic immunization is used to complete booster vaccination. Simply put, the inactivated vaccine was used before and the third booster vaccine was continued. Sequential immunization booster vaccination, that is, the booster vaccination is completed with a vaccine with a different technical route from that used in the original basic immunization. "For example, after the inactivated vaccine, we use adenovirus vaccine to strengthen. In this case, we can choose the booster according to the vaccine situation of the outpatient clinic, the specific actual situation of the recipient, and the actual advice of the pre-inspection doctor. However, both strengthening methods can effectively prevent viruses. We also appeal to elderly friends who have not been vaccinated to get vaccinated as soon as possible. "

Some elderly people mistakenly think that they are older and are more likely to respond to vaccination. But it turns out that the adverse reaction rate of the elderly after vaccination is far lower than that of the young. Because the old people’s immune system sensitivity is relatively low compared with young people, and they are less likely to respond. At present, the oldest person vaccinated abroad is 106 years old, and China is 109 years old. China has vaccinated more than 3 billion doses, and the results prove that it is very safe for the elderly to vaccinate.

For the elderly people with basic diseases

What should I pay attention to when vaccinating Covid-19 vaccine?

First, when the elderly are vaccinated, if they have a basic disease, it is recommended to vaccinate in a stable period. If they are not sure, it is recommended to consult a vaccination doctor or a clinician to assess whether they can be vaccinated with Covid-19 vaccine.

Second, know the vaccination process and related knowledge in Covid-19 in advance, and make an appointment in advance to avoid the fatigue and tension caused by the elderly waiting too much at the scene. During the vaccination process, it is recommended that the elderly be accompanied by their families to prevent accidents and falls.

Finally, the elderly need to stay under observation for 30 minutes after being vaccinated with Covid-19 vaccine. If you feel unwell after vaccination with Covid-19 vaccine for a long time, you are advised to seek medical advice as soon as possible. If you suspect that it is related to Covid-19 vaccine, you should also report it as soon as possible.

Source: Shaanxi Provincial Health and Health Commission

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Original title: "Emergency search! The trajectory involves Xi ‘an Railway Station, restaurants, building materials market, and the latest bulletin of Shaanxi Provincial Health and Health Commission! 》

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